This year’s edition of the Nostradamus Report, presented during the Cannes Next programme at the Marché du Film, set a distinctly pragmatic tone for industry reflection and forward planning. Titled “Reality/Resistance”, the 2025 report was introduced by its author, media analyst Johanna Koljonen, and was followed by a panel discussion with producers Roman Paul (Razor Film) and Katarina Tomkova (Kaleidoscope, Punkchart Films).

Commissioned annually by the Göteborg Film Festival since 2013, the Nostradamus Report aims to identify near-future trends in the audiovisual industries through interviews with sector professionals and contextual analysis. The 2025 edition focuses on the shift from what it describes as the industry’s historic “resistance to reality” to a call for structural resilience across financing, development and audience engagement.

Opening the session, Koljonen addressed the widening disconnect between industry practices and the social, political and environmental contexts in which audiovisual work now operates. Referring to global crises such as war, democratic erosion and climate disruption, she noted that these external pressures increasingly shape both the logistics and the ethics of content production. “We cannot resist the consequences of reality while continuing to resist reality itself,” she remarked.

The report presents several structural and thematic concerns. Among them is the observation that production capacity across Europe has grown, but market structures – particularly commissioning, distribution and financing – have not kept pace. A recurring theme is that the industry is still heavily reliant on models developed under more stable political and economic conditions, which no longer hold.

Another focal point is political polarisation and the impact of autocratisation on freedom of expression. Koljonen emphasised that in more than 40 countries, including within the EU, media workers now face pressure to self-censor or align with state narratives. The report suggests that all parts of the industry, including festivals, funds and production companies, must begin to incorporate risk management strategies for working under such deteriorating democratic conditions.

The presentation also addressed the diminishing symbolic and market dominance of US content. While American productions continue to dominate distribution volumes, the report argues that soft power dynamics are shifting. Koljonen pointed to the rise of localised storytelling with broad appeal and greater openness to non-US content in formerly closed markets. She noted that domestic films in Europe are recovering audience share more quickly than US imports post-pandemic, particularly in the arthouse segment. This evolving landscape, she suggested, presents an opportunity for regional and national industries to invest in distinct audience relationships and long-term communication strategies, particularly through more integrated development and distribution models.

In the panel that followed, producers Roman Paul and Katarina Tomkova expanded on some of the report’s observations. Paul described Cannes as a necessary “recalibration” space for producers navigating increasingly complex terrain. He acknowledged the mounting pressures, but noted that the collaborative environment of the festival provides momentum and reaffirms professional purpose.

Tomkova focused on transparency in audience targeting, advocating for producers to be more direct about a film’s likely reach and not to present niche work as crossover content. She also addressed the challenge of measuring a film’s impact outside of traditional theatrical releases. One of her recent movies had a larger audience during its festival run than through its entire domestic cinema release, a point she used to argue for better data collection around festival distribution and international non-theatrical exposure.

Both commented on the increasing responsibility of producers not only to manage production, but also to shape audience strategies and long-tail distribution. Paul shared a recent example involving the integration of TikTok content into a film’s communication plan from pre-production onwards, while Tomkova noted the benefits of working with festivals that curate travelling selections, which offer broader geographical reach within small territories. One recurring issue raised during the session was the lack of mechanisms to translate festival success into sustainable audience engagement or secondary windows. Koljonen emphasised that while the theatrical release remains important, particularly symbolically, for many titles, the real audience may be located elsewhere and accessible only through restructured approaches to communication and release planning.

On the development side, the report calls for a shift away from adversarial or overly formal processes, and towards collaborative models that test assumptions about story, audience and business model from the outset. The report also suggests that many development pipelines are misaligned with actual production and market outcomes, either overdeveloping weak concepts or under-developing projects with real potential. In its final chapter, the report documents a series of examples from across Europe where lower-cost productions and smaller-scale works have successfully connected with audiences, often by building long-term engagement strategies. It also points to shifts in younger audiences’ relationship to both film and national culture, suggesting that relevance and visibility must be cultivated early on and deliberately – not assumed. As Koljonen concluded, “If we want to continue telling stories that matter, we need to become more adaptive, not just to survive, but also to remain culturally relevant.”

The full “Nostradamus Report 2025 – Reality/Resistance” is available for free download via the Göteborg Film Festival website. German Films was also announced as a new strategic partner for the Nostradamus Project, which continues to receive core support from Creative Europe – MEDIA, the Nordisk Film & TV Fond, BoostHBG, Kulturakademin and Lindholmen Science Park.