British firm Ampere Analysis has announced that SVoD players’ spending is set to surpass that of commercial broadcasters in Europe’s five largest markets (the UK, Germany, France, Spain and Italy), hitting €10 billion in 2024.

The analysis, authored by Neil Anderson, highlights how broadcasters are now facing “the major challenges of strong competition from deep-pocketed streamers, increased pressure on their own content budgets, and falling viewer engagement levels”.

According to Ampere’s Media Consumer behaviour tracker, “Commercial broadcasters have seen an average 16% decline in consumer engagement across Europe’s big-five markets since 2016,” resulting in a decline of nearly €1 billion in the linear TV advertising market over the past ten years.

Despite their attempts to adapt, commercial broadcasters have cut their content spending by 19% since 2016, “even as they continue substantial investments in film and TV content, totalling €8 billion in 2023”.

Ampere, however, argues that the next few years will present “a strategic opportunity for broadcasters amid a slowdown in spending by the major streaming services”. Indeed, investment by global streamers in European-sourced content is forecast to grow by 8% year on year in 2025, compared to an average annual growth rate of 35% between 2021 and 2024.

“Industry giants including Netflix, Disney and Warner Bros Discovery are scaling back streaming spend growth to ensure sustained profitability, paving the way for national broadcasters to capitalise on this shift. Sustaining or increasing content investment is crucial for broadcasters to differentiate themselves in an industry where major global streamers are adopting more conservative spending strategies. Bold commissioning decisions can set broadcasters apart, and drive engagement and advertising revenue,” Anderson writes.

Finally, the analyst suggests that broadcasters shouldn’t only focus their efforts on content spending strategies, but should also prioritise the transition of audiences to streaming to ensure their long-term relevance. “This involves investing in their video-on-demand platforms, expanding content libraries, enhancing digital advertising capabilities, experimenting with content release strategies across linear and VoD, and tailoring content output to cater to younger demographics,” he explains.