On 9 July, during the Small-Screen Forum held on the Film Industry Main Stage at this year’s Karlovy Vary International Film Festival, findings from the “Nostradamus Report 2025: Reality/Resistance” were presented by Josef Kullengård, head of Industry at the Göteborg Film Festival.

“This talk will cover not only television and small screens, but the whole audiovisual ecosystem at large. The Nostradamus Report has been commissioned by the Göteborg Film Festival since 2013 and was established in light of the rapid changes within the industries: changing business models and avoidance behaviours, but the macro trends of society as well. It was established to predict the near future and also to contribute somewhat to the upskilling of the industry,” Kullengård stated, opening his presentation.

As usual, this year’s report was written by media analyst Johanna Koljonen. The head of Industry talked about how, in today’s world, filled with war and political uncertainty, “we should do the best we can, and realise that even if we do feel powerless in the face of the world, we are not powerless within our industry, within our profession”.

The report is divided into seven chapters: “From Reality-resistant to Resilient Resistance”, “One World, Different Woes”, “Art and the Autocratic Breakthrough”, “Sunset Hollywood, Hello World”, “Advocating for Film and the Local Industry”, “Rethinking Development” and “What We Know About Getting the Work and the Word Out”.

One key topic in the report stems from the very first chapter and can be found in its title, “From Reality-resistant to Resilient Resistance”. Speaking about this, Kullengård noted the importance of being deeply engaged with what's happening within “our little bubble” of the industry as well as being resilient in the face of what is happening outside of it. He noted that people who flourish in the film industry tend to be problem solvers and optimists who don’t take no for an answer.

The presentation also touched upon the economic aspect of today’s productions, with a quote from Morad Koufane from France Télévisions: “There's less money, even though it is still plenty in absolute terms.” In this sense, the report deals with the mismatches present in commissioning and distribution, noting that it’s hard to strike a perfect balance between the films and series that are produced and the number that our ecosystem can facilitate, both from a market and audience perspective. “Producers feel like it’s super-hard right now, but one of the main reasons is also that producers are so numerous and deal with more products than the market can actually absorb,” Kullengård stated.

Together with this issue, there are broader problems that are having an impact on the world at large: “The erosion of democracies, extreme weather, international destabilisation, and pressures on cultural funding and global economic systems” will continue to affect the systems around us. The Nostradamus Report suggests that we need to be better at handling potential chaos and practising flexibility – both at the societal level and at an organisational level within the industry.

A major topic confronted by the research is the concept of Americanisation, which has been challenged in recent years: “US content still dominates, but its position as a dominant cultural soft power might be wobbling a bit.” This shift is also closely linked to the economic influence of the USA, with its future path depending on the country’s political developments in the coming years. It is becoming increasingly clear that the mainstream, once defined by a generic global voice rooted in American culture, appears to be gradually fading. According to the study, this event may create new opportunities for other regions and for greater cultural diversity around the world.

Along with the report, the team has worked on a podcast episode in conjunction with the Berlinale’s European Film Market titled “Arthouse That Works – Distribution Insights from the Nostradamus Report”.

The full report is available to peruse by following this link.