Scenarios, hypotheses, wagers, inferences, more or less trustworthy information and rumours are circulating at lightning speed within the sector and among fan circles: the broader lines of the Official Selection, set to be showcased in the 79th Cannes Film Festival (running 12 – 23 May), are being mapped out exactly one week ahead of the Parisian Official Selection press conference, during which Thierry Frémaux (accompanied by president Iris Knobloch) will unveil a significant number of the gathering’s film choices before a healthy array of additional works are revealed at a later date, as is now his way.

Likely candidates for the competition section include Fjord by Romania’s Cristian Mungiu, Minotaur by Russia’s Andrey Zvyagintsev, Parallel Tales by Iran’s Asghar Farhadi, Bitter Christmas by Spain’s Pedro Almodóvar, All of a Sudden by Japan’s Ryüsuke Hamaguchi, Sheep in the Box by fellow Japanese director Hirokazu Kore-eda, Her Private Hell by Denmark’s Nicolas Winding Refn and It Will Happen Tonight by Italy’s Nanni Moretti.

Potential titles battling it out for the 2026 Palme d’Or notably include Coward by Belgium’s Lukas Dhont (if he manages to wrap post-production in time, which isn’t a given), The Beloved by the much-hyped Spanish director Rodrigo Sorogoyen, Out of This World by fellow Spaniard Albert Serra (who has a gargantuan editing challenge on his hands), Butterfly Jam by rising Russian star Kantemir Balagov, Fatherland by Poland’s Pawel Pawlikowski (about which no information whatsoever is coming through) and Diary of a Chambermaid by Romania’s Radu Jude (ignored by Cannes until now, but currently pinning his hopes on a film made in France and backed by SBS).

Worth a mention on the question of outside contenders are Après by Russia’s Kirill Serebrennikov, Wake of Umbra by Mexico’s Carlos Reygadas, Gentle Monster by Austria’s Marie Kreutzer, Everytime by the equally Austrian Sandra Wollner, first feature film Ben'Imana by Rwanda’s Marie-Clementine Dusabejambo, Forever Your Maternal Animal by Costa Rican Valentina Maurel, Strawberries by Morocco’s Laïla Marrakchi, I See Buildings Fall Like Lightning by English director Clio Barnard and Four Seasons in Java by Indonesia’s Kamila Andini.

It’s anyone’s guess which US titles will eventually win out, with only a very limited number of highly likely candidates standing tall (for timing reasons), but the most probable works are Paper Tiger by James Gray and potentially Jack of Spades by Joel Coen. Given the context, Martin McDonagh’s British-US production Wild Horse Nine might also come out on top.

Favourites among the French contenders (which will be chosen, as always, the night before the Official Selection is announced) jostling in the starting blocks are The Birthday Party by Léa Mysius, A Good Little Soldier by Stéphane Brizé and The Unknown by Arthur Harari. Biding their time behind them are Between Now And Then by Mikhaël Hers, Red Rocks by Bruno Dumont, A Gambler by Elie Wajeman, and maybe Milo by Nicole Garcia. On paper, the lack of a big, attention-grabbing cast on the red carpet implies that A Place to Heal by Cédric Kahn and La Chaleur by Stéphane Demoustier are destined for other showcases.

Other films whose titles have been tossed into the hat for a place in one or other of Cannes’ sections primarily include Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma by US director Jane Schoenbrun, Hot Spot by Poland’s Agnieszka Smoczyńska, Orient Adagio by Palestine’s Maha Haj, El Puma by Chile’s Marcela Said, The Meltdown by fellow Chilean Manuella Martelli, Trinity by Singapore’s Boo Junfeng, Hombre al agua by Mexico’s Gael García Bernal, La gran familia by his compatriot Matias Meyer Rojas, A Day in the Life of Jo: Chapter Phaedra by Greece’s Jacqueline Lentzou, Dora by South Korea’s July Jung, the mysterious The Dreamed Adventure by Germany’s Valeska Grisebach, Leila et la nuit by Brazil’s Fellipe Barbosa, Brace Your Heart by Sweden’s Amanda Kernell, Weird Elliot by fellow Swede Johannes Nyholm, and Hearing by Vietnam’s Lê Báo.

Among the overwhelming number of French works likely to be selected for Cannes Première, the out-of-competition line-up and the festival’s special screenings, the main contenders are French titles One Minute to Midnight by Nicolas Pariser, Another Day by Jeanne Herry, Full Phil by Quentin Dupieux, De Gaulle: The Sovereign Edge by Antonin Baudry, Greenland by Emmanuel Courcol and A Girl's Story by Judith Godrèche, whereas I Will Forget Your Name by Yann Gonzalez and Roma Elastica by Bertrand Mandico seem better suited to the Directors’ Fortnight.

There are also fantastic opportunities for movies by young talent to gain good exposure across the different festival sections. Stealing focus among them, in the second feature film category, are A Man of His Time by Emmanuel Marre, A Woman’s Life by Charline Bourgeois-Tacquet, The Green Eyes by Fanny Liatard and Jérémy Trouilh, Words of Love by Rudi Rosenberg, Shana by Lila Pinell, and even Les derniers jours de R.M. by Amin Sidi-Boumédiène.

The rumour mill for first feature films is especially active when it comes to If I See A Rainbow by China’s Zhao Hao, A Girl Unknown by her compatriot Zou Jing, Elephants in the Fog by Nepal’s Abinash Bikram Shah, Titanic Ocean by Greece’s Konstantina Kotzamani and French titles La Gradiva by Marine Atlan, Gabin by Maxence Voiseux, Du fioul dans les artères by Pierre Le Gall, Madame by Hélène Rosselet-Ruiz and Ce qui me mène à toi by Khalil Cherti. But there’s also talk of an Iranian documentary and fiction films from the US, Ireland, Egypt and Lebanon making an appearance.

Last but not least, after the resounding successes of previous years which have seen works catapulted from Cannes to the Oscars, animation will definitely feature on the agenda, with the most serious contenders including Viva Carmen by Sébastien Laudenbach and In Waves by Phuong Mai Nguyen.

According to our sources - with the exception of the competition where omertà reigns supreme - not many films have been chosen for the Official Selection as yet. But the pace is starting to quicken, and things will reach a peak in no time at all, triggering a domino effect in terms of the array of choices for the Directors’ Fortnight and counter proposals from Venice and Locarno. For the time being, all we know for sure with this 79th edition of Cannes is that Park Chan-Wook will lead the official competition jury (read our news) and that the festival opening will be entrusted to French director Pierre Salvadori’s The Electric Kiss, but, whatever the outcome, grape-vine predictions hint at a first-rate line-up to be savoured next month on the Croisette.