This year’s edition of the Nostradamus Report, presented during the Cannes Next programme at the Marché du Film, carried a tone of structural reassessment, rather than cautionary forecasting. Titled “Challenging Projections”, the 2026 report was introduced by its author, media analyst Johanna Koljonen, and was presented as a comprehensive update to how the audiovisual ecosystem is understood, measured and navigated.

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Commissioned annually by the Göteborg Film Festival since 2013, the Nostradamus Report maps near-future industry dynamics through research and interviews with leading professionals across film, television, finance and digital media. The 2026 edition positions itself explicitly as a correction to what it describes as “projection bias” within the industry: the tendency to interpret structural change through fear or nostalgia, rather than observable data.

At the centre of the report is a claim that has become increasingly difficult to ignore: film, television, streaming and creator-led media no longer operate as separate sectors, but as a single, interconnected system. Within this system, television drama volumes are stabilising at around 75% of their historical peak, feature-film production remains high, and short-form scripted content continues to expand rapidly across platforms once considered peripheral to “cinema”.

“To the traditional film and TV industries, things like the creator ecosystem or the positive qualities of vertical video used to feel really abstract. But in the last year, creator-led theatrical features and the microdrama surge have finally made it click,” explained Koljonen. “What we’re still struggling with is understanding how this media ecosystem works, especially around our content, and this year’s Nostradamus report updates that map.”

A key focus of the 2026 findings is the rise of what the report terms the “New Content Economy”, where value is increasingly generated through direct audience relationships, diversified revenue streams and cross-platform intellectual property development. In this context, creator-led production is no longer positioned as adjacent to the film industry, but as structurally embedded within it.

The report explicitly challenges longstanding industry attitudes towards creators and influencers. It argues that scripted online content has functioned as a parallel training ground for audiovisual professionals for over a decade, but continues to be under-recognised in recruitment, funding and institutional frameworks. This disconnect, it suggests, is no longer sustainable in a labour market defined by hybrid career trajectories.

Among the 2026 report’s key insights is a reassessment of “popular” storytelling. It argues that European film culture in particular has often misread audience appetite by equating popularity with artistic compromise. Instead, the report frames popular forms as central to cultural relevance and industry sustainability, particularly as fan communities and creator ecosystems become active participants in IP development and circulation.

Another core argument is the need to redefine success itself. Rather than focusing narrowly on box office or individual project performance, the report proposes measuring the health of the entire ecosystem: creators, companies, institutions and audiences. This includes acknowledging that value increasingly accumulates outside traditional theatrical or broadcast windows, often in digital and community-driven spaces that remain poorly measured.

The 2026 report also highlights a structural shift in career pathways. Interviewees from across the sector – including Peter Carlton, of Warp Films; David Madden, of WEBTOON Productions; and Irina Ignatiew-Lemke, of European Film Promotion – reflected on a media landscape where entry points into the industry are increasingly non-linear.

The report also places emphasis on the expanding role of fans and online communities in shaping narrative success. Rather than treating audience participation as marketing support, it frames it as a structural component of contemporary IP development, from early awareness-building to long-term storyworld expansion.

In its final section, Challenging Projections argues that the industry’s central challenge is not technological disruption, but interpretive adaptation. The difficulty lies in recognising what the system already is, rather than what it used to be. The task ahead is less about predicting the future than learning to read the present without distortion.

The full “Nostradamus Report 2026 – Challenging Projections” is available via the Göteborg Film Festival website. The Nostradamus project continues to expand its format this year with the introduction of a newsletter and a forthcoming podcast series, extending its analysis beyond the Marché du Film presentation window.

The 2026 Nostradamus Report was made possible thanks to key project partners German Films and Kulturakademin, together with two new partners this year: MOIN Film Fund Hamburg Schleswig-Holstein, joining as exclusive German regional partner, and the Netherlands Film Fund. The Nordisk Film & TV Fond, Creative Europe – MEDIA and Region Västra Götaland are the main industry funding contributors to Göteborg Film Festival Industry, including the Nostradamus project.